Establishing a realistic figure for new housing is important to LLRA. As part of LLRA’s responsibilities as the designated Neighbourhood Planning Forum for Long Leys, it is required to plan for the facilities needed to support the community over coming decades.
Recent decisions in Central Lincolnshire have provided some greater clarity on the potential for new housing developments in Long Leys. As a result, LLRA is taking the opportunity to share its view on the most likely outcome that:
- Between 20 and 50 new dwellings could be needed in Long Leys in the next 20 years.
As a “Health Warning”, the 20 – 50 new dwellings figure is LLRA’s best estimate rather than a certainty set in stone. Based on recent rejected submissions to the Central Lincolnshire Local Plan (CLLP), there is clearly interest from landowners for significant portions of their land to be developed for housing. There is also additional land in Long Leys currently for sale, marketed with development potential. Developers will find it much more difficult, to gain planning approval for large scale housebuilding that is not on the CLLP or in future the Long Leys Neighbourhood Plan. Smaller developments of less than 10 homes, such as the development of the former Lincolnshire Rewinds site, would still be possible as they fall outside of the CLLP.
LLRA’s work on the Neighbourhood Plan was suspended whilst awaiting the progress of the CLLP. Now that we have some clarity, LLRA’s next step is to progress a Community Right to Build project for a Community Centre and General Convenience Store. More information on this exciting and challenging project will be provided by early March.
Jon Davies, Chair of the Long Leys Neighbourhood Plan Action Group.
PS Below is more detailed information on how LLRA estimated the new dwellings numbers.
What are the influences on housebuilding in Long Leys over the next 20 years?
Key influences on the number of new dwellings include:
- National Planning Policy – set by the Government.
- Policies set in the Central Lincolnshire Local Plan (CLLP) – currently under development
- The actual housing needed to sustain Long Leys as a community
- The plans of any individual landowners
Where are we now?
The draft Central Lincolnshire Local Plan (CLLP) has now identified the specific sites for 29,150 new dwellings that could be built by 2040. There is only one site approved by the CLLP within Long Leys:
- Former church site on Long Leys Road – 10 new dwellings (COL/CAR/004)
Two other sites offered by Long Leys landowners were rejected by the CLLP:
- North of the A46 on Long Leys Road – 1,115 new dwellings (COL/CAR/001)
- South of the A46 on long Leys Road – 507 new dwellings (COL/CAR/002)
See the map in Appendix A below for both the accepted and rejected CLLP sites, together with land currently being marketed as having development potential.
Given the CLLP has only given Long Leys a site allocation for 10 homes, it is reasonable to assume a new dwelling figure broadly between the CLLP Housing Requirement Figure for Long Leys (18 new dwellings) and that identified by the report by specialist consultants working on the Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) element of the Neighbourhood Plan (49 new dwellings).
From the HNA report, the following broad conclusions can also be made:
- Long Leys has a far greater proportion of homes with four or more bedrooms than that seen across Lincoln as a whole and is lacking in 1-3 bedroom houses/flats which are required by newly forming households, first time buyers and elderly people wishing to downsize.
- Today, those on average (median) incomes in Lincoln, cannot afford market rents or to purchase a home in Long Leys. There is a lack of properties with tenures of shared ownership, social rent and affordable rent.
To satisfy organic growth in the Long Leys population in isolation, around 2 new homes per year will be needed (0.4% growth per year) over the 2021-2040 period.
Are Things Likely To Change?
Any future change would likely be a result of changes in government policy (the National Planning Policy Framework) or a general failure to deliver new housing within Central Lincolnshire at the required level. If any of the major identified sites in Central Lincolnshire fail to gain planning permission, then further development sites may be needed in other areas. The recent outline planning approval for 3,200 homes over a 20 year period on the Western Growth Corridor (WGC) to the west of Lincoln has reduced the risk of this happening. WGC will initially involve 300 homes accessed from Skellingthorpe Road. Further development stages will gain access from Tritton Road with the construction of two new bridges over the railway line.